Well, I knew I was bound to have a stinker of a week sooner or later, and hopefully it doesn’t get any worse than last week’s 7-7 showing, which brings the season record to a respectable 36-26 (.581) for the year.  So, let’s take a look at this week’s games (Picks in Bold, Home Team Listed Second):

Browns (+6) at Bills: Last week, I was looking for either of these teams to show me something.  The Browns put up a good fight in a losing effort against the Bengals.  The Bills floundered against the Chad Henne-led Miami Dolphins.  This is the only reasoning I used in picking the Browns.  Both of these teams are awful.

Steelers (-11) at Lions:  The Lions looked like the toothless team we had become accustomed to seeing during their 19-game losing streak last week, while the Steelers played like a team that was desperate for a win.  Pittsburgh needs to win again this week in order to stay with the Ravens and Bengals in the AFC North.  I expect them to play very well again this week.

Cowboys (-9) at Chiefs: Dallas is having just a plethora of issues right now, the latest being an injury to WR Roy Williams that will sideline him for tomorrow’s game in Arrowhead Stadium.  Fortunately for the ‘Boys, they’re playing in Arrowhead Stadium, which means they get to face the hapless Chiefs, who look far, FAR away from being competitive in any game.

Vikings (-11) at Rams: Minnesota is flying high right now with their 30-23 victory over the Packers to move to 4-0 on the season.  Meanwhile, the Rams are a team with Kyle Boller at QB and, potentially, Rush Limbaugh for an owner…Recipe for disaster, methinks.

Raiders at Giants (-16): This is just an absurd spread for an NFL game, but if you’ve seen both JaMarcus Russell and the Giants’ defense, you would struggle to not pick the G-Men.  I wouldn’t worry too much about Eli Manning’s plantar fascitis, either.  This is an injury common with runners, and with the amount of time Eli should have in the pocket, he shouldn’t have to run at all.

Bucs at Eagles (-16): I am going way against my tendencies this week by picking all of these favorites with huge spreads, but I think it’s more of a testament to how much of a gap has been established between good teams and bad teams in the league this year.  Parity looks as if it might be dying in a quick and painless fashion.  McNabb is back for the Eagles, who could really use a win to show that they can compete with the G-Men in the NFC East, and will play that way too.

Redskins at Panthers (-5): Living in Washington has forced me, at times, to suffer through Redskins games this year.  As a result, I am baffled by their 2-2 record if I don’t remember who they beat.  Then I remember they beat the Rams and Bucs by a combined five points.  If there is any justice in the world of football, then Carolina will win this game, because the Redskins would be the least-deserving 3-2 team ever.

Bengals (+9) at Ravens: Call me crazy, but I am becoming a believer in the Cincinnati Bengals.  They seem to have enough offense to win games, and their defense is serviceable, as well.  That being said, I am a believer in them to lose by less than 9.  The Ravens are a team that doesn’t blow anyone out, but finds a way to win more often than not.  B-More wins an ugly one 24-21 at home.

Falcons (+3) at 49ers: This is a very interesting game because it’ll really be the Niners first game without Frank Gore (I’m not counting the Rams as a real opponent.).  The Falcons have been a team that hasn’t really had a ton of attention payed to it so far this year, which is odd considering they won the NFC South last year.  I think Atlanta will start to make some noise tomorrow with a win in San Francisco.

Jaguars (+2) at Seahawks:  Once again, Seneca Wallace will be starting for Seattle.  Once again, I am picking against the Seahawks at home.  Jacksonville is coming off of a resounding victory over Tennessee at home last week and needs to win this one in order to maintain position in a still-competitive AFC South.

Texans at Cardinals (-6): This is a very interesting game between two of the more high-octane offenses in the league, that have struggled to get going so far.  The Cardinals and Texans both need this game to keep up with their division’s leaders.  However, I think Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald will outgun Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson and continue Houston’s first half misery and underachievement.

Patriots (-3) at Broncos: Finally, after four weeks of playing some subpar competition, the Broncos and their 4-0 record are going to be tested.  It also is a matchup of Teacher (Bill Belichick) vs. Student (Josh McDaniels).  In the end, though, the Patriots are playing at a much higher level than the Broncos right now and should have little trouble going into Mile High Stadium and taking the game.

Colts (-5) at Titans: Peyton Manning and the Colts offense have looked as good as they have in a few years and the D isn’t too shabby, either.  Meanwhile, the Titans are in deep trouble of starting the season 0-5 after going 13-3 just last year.  I don’t see the Titans figuring out all of their problems in just one week and playing Indy doesn’t help them at all.

Jets (-3) at Dolphins: It took me five weeks to do it, but I’m finally taking the New York Jets to win a game.  The Jets lost in a very deceiving way last week that masked how well their defense played against the Saints’ highly-praised offense.  I think that Mark Sanchez will cut down on his mistakes from last week and the Jets’ D will take care of Ronnie Brown and Co. in the wildcat and win easy in Miami.

Advertisements
The big one is the game on Monday Night, with Brett Favre going up against his old mates from Green Bay.

The big one is the game on Monday Night, with Brett Favre going up against his old mates from Green Bay.

Week 4 of the NFL Season is just about 36 hours away now and I almost forgot to make my pick for this week…oops.  Last week was another solid one, going 10-6 to push the overall record for the year to 29-19 through the first three weeks.  Let’s see if I can give all of those 10 games over .500 back in one week. (Picks in Bold, Home Team listed 2nd):

Ravens (+2) at Patriots: It’s not very often I pick against the Pats at home, but I really think that this Ravens team is the best in the AFC right now.  Their offense is drastically improved from a year ago, Joe Flacco is a star in the making, and their defense is still formidable enough to allow the Ravens to win close games.  Baltimore wins it, 31-28.

Bucs at Redskins (+8): Two of the worst teams is the league battling in FedEx Field, with most ‘Skins fans preferring to see an encore presentation of U2 instead.  The ‘Skins offense should be able to take advantage of a non-existent Tampa secondary and shouldn’t give up more than 10 points against Josh Johnson and the worst offense in the NFL.  Expect Santana Moss to have a big day in this one.

Titans (-3) at Jaguars: Tennessee can’t possibly start the year 0-4, can they? This is a competitive football team that’s run into some tough opponents to start the year, and Jacksonville might just be the break they needed.  If Chris Johnson can get going and the Titans neutralize Maurice Jones-Drew, then Tennessee should pick up its first win in ’09.

Raiders at Texans (-9): In a game that both teams need to win to prove something to their fans, Houston will finally find a way to win at home, mainly because of the erratic play of Oakland QB JaMarcus Russell, who is looking more and more like a big, 275-pound bust.  The Texans should have very little trouble moving the ball against Oakland’s front seven, too, which could make this one more lopsided than Oakland’s 23-3 loss last week to Denver.

Lions (+10) at Bears: After Detroit’s hex-breaking victory last week (that I said would happen, by the way.) over Washington, I expect the Lions to play a bit above their expectations for a little while.  Although I am confident the Bears will win this game, Chicago’s offense hasn’t done much to make me believe that they could win by more than a touchdown.

Bengals (-6) at Browns:  It’s not easy to pick a team that hasn’t scored a touchdown in the last two games, so I didn’t.  The Browns might be the worst team in the NFL this year and part of the problem is that the offense can determine who its leader is because of Eric Mangini’s nonsensical act of keeping the starting QB decision under wraps until the last minute.  Either way, neither Brady Quinn nor Derek Anderson have played well this year.  Going up against a surprisingly good Cincy squad doesn’t bode well for them.

Seahawks at Colts (-11): After seeing what the Colts did to the Cardinals in Arizona last Sunday night, I’d be a fool to pick them to go down against the Seneca Wallace-led Seattle Seahawks.  If the Colts play the way they should, then this one should be in the bag by halftime.

Giants (-9) at Chiefs: After seeing Kevin Kolb light up the Chiefs last weekend, it’s hard to imagine Eli Manning doing anything less than that.  Even worse for the Chiefs, the Giants have a more proficient power running game and might have a slightly better defense than the Eagles, too.  I expect another blowout in this one for the G-Men.

Jets at Saints (-7): At the beginning of this week when I saw this one, I was inclined to pick the Jets to, at the very least, cover.  However, with the injuries to both Lito Sheppard and Donald Strickland, it’s hard to imagine the Jets’ secondary holding Drew Brees in check for the whole game.  I also think we’ll see Mark Sanchez, under the pressure to come up big yet again, finally struggle a bit in the Superdome.  I think it’ll be something like 27-13 in favor of the ‘Aints.

Bills at Dolphins (+1): I really don’t know what to make of either of these teams right now.  The Bills lost about half to their defense, with injuries to Donte Whitner, Leodis McKelvin, and Paul Posluszny (sp?) while the ‘Phins lost Chad Pennington for the year with yet another injury to his throwing shoulder (which I said might happen in my season preview.)  However, I think the Wildcat will prevail in this battle of struggling teams.  Miami in a low-scoring and ugly one, 17-13.

Cowboys (-3) at Broncos: It’s about time that the Denver Broncos had to play some decent teams, after winning over Cincinnati, Cleveland, and Oakland.  Dallas comes into this one coming off a tough win at home over the Panthers and desperately needs a statement win to show that they are going to compete in the NFC East this year.  For Denver, this is the start of a rough three game stretch.  After Dallas, it’s home to the Patriots and then to San Diego.

Rams at 49ers (-10): The Niners are without Frank Gore, which is very bad news for my fantasy team.  The Rams are without Marc Bulger, which is very bad for their real team.  St. Louis’ offense was awful with Bulger at the helm, so God only knows how much worse they could get with Ravens reject Kyle Boller.  The SF defense is going to be fired up, as well, after last week’s crushing last-second loss in Minnesota.

Chargers (+7) at Steelers:  Neither of these two teams has looked overly impressive in their first three games.  The difference is that San Diego is healthy and has a much more effective offense than do the Steelers.  I don’t know how the Chargers are being given 7 in this game, but I’ll gladly take it to the bank.

Packers at Vikings (-4): Brett Favre says it’s not about revenge, but at least part of it might be.  He has the best weapon of vengeance that any NFL QB could possibly want, too, with Adrian Peterson carrying the football behind him.  Aaron Rodgers hasn’t really been tested to much, yet, and he didn’t look great in the loss to the Bengals in Week 2, either.  I expect the Vikes to win by a touchdown, 28-21.