Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there who realizes, like me, that Thanksgiving is meant to be for three things: Family, Food, and Football.  Once again this year, we get a triple-header to feast on (Well, as long as you have NFL Network or live in or around New York or Denver.). Then on Sunday and Monday Night, we get our usual helping for games from around the league, topped off by the big game this week as the Saints host the Patriots in the Big Easy.  So before you go into your tryptophan-induced comas, here are the Week 12 picks.  Last week: 11-5. Season: 84-73-1 (.535)

Thanksgiving Games
Packers (-11)
at Lions: The annual Turkey Day showdown between these two teams kicks off a real yawner of a holiday in terms of the matchups.  There’s a ton of concerns for the Lions with respect to the shoulder of Matt Stafford and the Packers need to keep winning if they expect to win the NFC Wild Card.  The Pack should win easy in Detroit.

Raiders (+14) at Cowboys: I fully expect the Cowboys to beat the Oakland Raiders, especially considering that they still have a full complement of running backs, unlike the Bengals who were stunned in the Black Hole last week.  However, I think Oakland will come out playing very hard in this one and Bruce Gradkowski is trying to earn himself a shot at an NFL job for next season.  It’ll be closer than you think.

Giants (-7) at Broncos: In a matchup of two teams that are in dire need of wins, the G-Men seem to have a lot more composure than the suddenly dysfunctional Broncos, who are looking to avoid their fifth-straight loss and completely erase a 6-0 start.  If the Giants’ pass rush is as bad as its been in recent games, expect Brandon Marshall to have a big day, but I would still expect New York to pull this one out easily.

Sunday
Buccaneers (+13)
at Falcons: There’s really nothing going right for the Atlanta Falcons right now. Matt Ryan has been less than stellar and Michael Turner is banged up.  Tampa Bay seems to have found some hints of life with Josh Freeman under center.  The Falcons win it, but Tampa stays with them the whole way.

Dolphins (-4) at Bills: Last week I figured that the Phins were basically done with the loss of Ronnie Brown.  This week, I think Ricky Williams is going to carry the load once again, especially against the porous Bills run D.  Miami is on the cusp of being in the playoff mix.  They should get into the thick of the discussion after this one.

Browns at Bengals (-14): The Browns mustered 37 points last week in their loss to Detroit.  I’d be surprised to see them score 37 points in all of their remaining games combined.  Plus this week they get to face a very angry Cincy squad that’s coming off an unacceptable loss to the Raiders of all teams.  Cincy will reassert itself as the best team in the AFC North this week.

Seahawks at Rams (+3): This game is a complete pillow fight, but I’ve liked what St. Louis has done the last couple of weeks. It’s amazing that, even though the season is over, they keep playing so hard. I think they’ll be rewarded with win #2 on Sunday.

Panthers (+3) at Jets: Has anyone been watching the Jets the last two months? They’re playing they way a rookie coach and QB combination should be expected to play.  They might not win another game for the rest of the season.  Maybe Rex Ryan will cry about that, too.

Redskins (+10) at Eagles: Two reasons to take Washington this week. The first is that they almost beat Dallas in Dallas last week (should have won, too). The second is that this is an NFC East game, and how often are these games actually blowouts?

Colts (-4) at Texans: After their loss to the Titans on Monday Night, I’m beginning to cool on the Houston Texans, who now really need a win to hang in the playoff race.  Unfortunately, they face Peyton Manning & Co, who will not lose in Houston this time around.  Way too hard to pick against Indy right now.

Chiefs at Chargers (-14): San Diego is riding one heck of a high right now after routing Denver last week.  I don’t expect them to do anything less than run away with the AFC West now, and it starts with a big win over the lowly Chiefs.

Jaguars (+4) at 49ers: Jacksonville suddenly finds itself in 2nd place in an AFC South that most expected them to finish dead last in.  San Francisco is quickly realizing the importance of needing a viable passing game in order to make the playoffs.  Jacksonville will take this one and continue it’s unlikely playoff push behind another stellar performance by Maurice Jones-Drew.

Cardinals (+2) at Titans: I know that Vince Young has lit a spark under the Tennessee Titans, but they haven’t faced an offense like the Cardinals during the winning streak.  Plus, the Cards are 5-0 on the road this year and can basically wrap up the non-competitive NFC West with a win on Sunday.

Bears at Vikings (-11): The Bears are basically in crisis mode at this point of the season, and the calls for Lovie Smith’s head have begun.  The Vikings remain one of the hottest teams in the NFL this season and a frontrunner in terms of Superbowl contenders.  The Vikes should cruise and continue on their march towards the NFC North crown and playoffs.

Steelers at Ravens (pick ’em): Interesting stat- Troy Polamalu has missed 4 games this season. In those games, Pittsburgh is 0-4.  Also remember that one hard hit could end Ben Roethlisberger’s day and force Dennis Dixon into action. Dixon has thrown 5 career NFL passes.  Against the Ravens’ D? Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

Monday Night
Patriots (+3)
at Saints: I really want to take New Orleans in this game, but they have run into one of the teams I would least want to face in this part of the season.  In the last 10 years, New England in 52-10 in regular season games after Thanksgiving.  This is winning time and the Pats don’t lose very often in winning time.  It’ll be a battle, but Brady and Belichick will find a way to outwit Brees.

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Not sure if he's smiling or not, but I don't think he'll be smiling after Sunday Night

So we have finally crossed the midway point of the regular season in the NFL and so far, as expected there have been some surprises and some disappointments.  My ability to pick games probably falls in neither of those areas, but rather in more of an “as expected category.”  After last week’s 5-8 disaster, the season record crept further downward to 65-61-1 (.516).  Here’s another attempt at a turnaround in Week 10.

Thursday Night
Bears (+3)
at 49ers: After seeing both of these teams play last week, the NFL probably regrets putting them in the Thursday Night game this week.  The Mike Singletary vs. the Team He Used to Play For storyline loses its luster when you see these two teams matchup.  I’ll take the Bears, solely because I know they’ll put up some points and they’ll win if they can just stop Frank Gore.  Alex Smith will throw at least 2 picks to bail out Chicago.

Sunday Games
Bills (+7)
at Titans: I have no idea what has gotten into the Tennessee Titans the last couple of weeks but they have looked very good.  However, I think part of that is because they haven’t been pressed into making Vince Young make a whole lot of big plays.  I think that the Bills will load the box early and often for Chris Johnson to make this happen.  Also, it sounds like Trent Edwards is going to be back from his injury, so the Bills might even have a halfway competent passing game this week.

Saints (-14) at Rams:  This needs very little analysis.  The Saints are 8-0 and rolling over opponents.  The Rams are 1-7 and beat the Lions for their only win.  New Orleans should crush them.  This one will be over by halftime.

Buccaneers at Dolphins (-10): My first impression of this game was to pick Tampa Bay.  Then I realized I would be taking the league’s 30th-ranked rush defense against Miami’s wildcat offense, which is prided on the run.  That made my decision much easier.  As long as Joey Porter shows up this week (he had a big ZERO tackles in New England) the Fish should be fine.

Lions at Vikings (-17): Minnesota got off to a slow start in Detroit and still managed to beat the Lions 27-13 at Ford Field.  That being said, I think Minnesota has gotten stronger while Detroit is starting to pack it in again.  Minnesota should be able to win by at least 17 in the Metrodome.

Jaguars (+7) at Jets:  I really don’t understand how the Jets are favored by 7 points in this game.  Other than the 38-0 win over Oakland, they haven’t blown anyone away, and since starting 3-0, just haven’t looked like the same team.  Jacksonville is a lot tougher than people give them credit for, and a win would put them at 5-4 with the Texans and into the playoff hunt.

Bengals (+7) at Steelers: So yet again the Bengals are playing a team they beat once already and are the underdog?  Did Vegas learn nothing from Cincy’s 17-7 win over Baltimore last weekend?  Apparently not.  I’m not sure who’s going to win this game, but you can be certain that the Bengals and Steelers will play a hard-fought and close game.

Broncos (-4) at Redskins:  Denver’s been knocked back to Earth the last couple of weeks, but those were two tough opponents.  Washington should provide the kind of bounce-back they are looking for.  I expect to see Denver have much greater success running the ball against the Skins and win by at least a touchdown.

Falcons at Panthers (+2): I have really liked what I’ve seen from the Panthers the last couple of weeks.  It seems like John Fox just opened his playbook to the section listed as “running plays” and it’s been looking pretty good ever since.  So long as they don’t put the game in Jake Delhomme’s hands at any point, I like Carolina’s chances at home against a struggling Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

Chiefs (+2) at Raiders:  I have no real explanation for picking the Chiefs to beat the Raiders other than the fact that they should have beaten them in Week 2 at home.  The game will be low-scoring, unwatched, and forgotten about soon after, but Kansas City might have its last chance at winning a game this weekend.

Eagles at Chargers (-3): The Chargers seem to be getting hot again as they attempt to chase down the AFC West-leading Broncos and are coming off a big win over the Giants.  The Eagles need this one just as badly after dropping their battle with the Cowboys last week to drop out of first place, but are without Brian Westbrook again it appears right now.  They need him on the field to be successful against San Diego’s defense.

Seahawks at Cardinals (-9): The Seahawks and Cardinals are two teams going in very different directions right now.  Since blowing out Jacksonville 41-0, Seattle has look just terrible, not even looking very convincing in its 32-20 win over Detroit last week.  The Cardinals, on the other hand, scored an easy win over the Bears and Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald looked very much on the same page.  That’s bad news for the Seahawks’ secondary.

Cowboys (-3) at Packers: Dallas showed up in a big way last week by beating the Eagles.  Green Bay decided not to show up by losing to the Bucs.  Who do you think I should pick???

Patriots (+3) at Colts: From a completely biased view, I would love to see the Colts win, even though I’m about as much a fan of Peyton Manning as I am of Tom Brady.  However, I’ve seen this matchup before and Brady has gotten the better of Manning five out of seven times in the regular season.  The Pats take another step towards being a Super Bowl contender by beating the Colts, 24-21.

Monday Night
Ravens (-11)
at Browns: This could be -21 and I would probably still take the Ravens to shellac the Cleveland Browns.  Cleveland is in complete disarray right now and just doesn’t show any signs of life.  Baltimore desperately needs a win to try and catch the loser of the Pittsburgh-Cincy game if they expect to make the playoffs.

Tony Romo might find himself in this position again if the Eagles have it their way on Sunday Night

With the baseball season finally coming to its end last night, I can now focus 100% on the NFL the rest of the way.  This is probably coming at the best time possible considering the issues I’ve run into making picks the last few weeks.  Last week was OK, but not great, with a record of 7-6, thanks in part to that late field goal by Jason Elam that cut the Saints’ final margin to 8.  The season record moves to 60-53-1 (.531).  Here’s the picks for this week:

Redskins at Falcons (-10):  Despite the fact that they ended up losing last week in New Orleans, the Falcons looked pretty good, with the exception of all the turnovers forced by the Saints’ D on Matt Ryan, whose nickname I am temporarily taking away from him.  The good news for the Falcons is that they get to finally start playing some bad teams again, starting with the lowly Redskins on Sunday in the Georgia Dome, where Atlanta is unbeaten this year.

Cardinals at Bears (-3): This is a really tough game to choose simply because you can’t predict what you’re going to see from either of these teams.  Two weeks ago, Arizona looked solid in beating the Giants in New York.  Last week, they put up a Kurt Warner INT-filled fiasco against the Panthers.  Likewise, the Bears beat up on the Browns last week after getting just smoked by the surprising Bengals in Cincy.  But I’m taking the Bears for two reasons: they haven’t lost at home yet this year and because Chicago will force Kurt Warner to make mistakes.

Ravens at Bengals (+3): So, let me get this straight. Cincy beat Baltimore on the road 17-14 just a few weeks ago but the Bengals are the dog at home in the rematch? How did this happen?  In all seriousness, though, Cincy wants this game badly to put some separation between themselves and 3rd place B-More and they wouldn’t mind keeping pace with the Steelers, either.  The Ravens haven’t looked good in a few weeks and are in serious trouble if they lose this one.

Texans (+10) at Colts: I must be out of my mind picking against Peyton Manning & Co., especially considering their 7-0 record and the fact that the Texans’ D isn’t exactly one of the league’s best.  However, I think that you’ll see why Houston is considered to have one of the most explosive offenses in the league in this game, especially if Ryan Moats can get going on the ground to open it up for the Matt Schaub-Andre Johnson connection.  The Colts should win, but Houston will keep it interesting.

Dolphins at Patriots (-11): Ever since Miami introduced the Wildcat against the Pats at the beginning of last year, New England has had that game on its mind.  Now they get the Dolphins sans a competent QB.  New England will be well prepared to handle Ronnie Brown and his partners in crime and the Pats will cruise to an easy victory.

Packers (-10) at Buccaneers: Have you seen the Tampa Bay Bucs play this year? If the answer was yes, I’m sorry you had to suffer through it.  Packers by a significant margin.

Chiefs at Jaguars (-7): Jacksonville proves almost every week that they are a competitive team.  Last week’s loss to Vince Young and the Titans says otherwise, but I think that you’ll see Maurice Jones-Drew have a big day against the Chiefs’ run defense and that the Chiefs will continue to lack any kind of offensive consistency.

Lions (+10) at Seahawks: Both of these teams just don’t seem to have very much to play for already at this point in the season.  It’s important to note that Matt Hasselbeck continues to play with his broken ribs.  One bad hit and it’ll be back to Seneca Wallace and a lot less points being scored in the Pacific Northwest.  The Lions will find a way to keep it close, win or lose.

Panthers at Saints (-13): This would normally be a very easy pick, but it seems like Carolina remembered how to run the football last week with D’Angelo Williams and Johnathan Stewart, which is going to make it a lot tougher on their opponents to win big, if only because the Panthers can control possession better.  Still, no team has given me a good reason to pick against the Saints thus far and I expect to see an 8-0 team in the Big Easy.

Chargers (+5) at Giants: This is a game that both teams need badly since they’re both chasing good teams in front of them.  In the last few weeks, though, San Diego has looked as if they’re turning the corner after a slow start, especially with the reemergence of LaDanian Tomlinson.  The G-Men, on the other hand, have lost three straight and Eli Manning might be more injured than we’ve been led to believe because he has looked just awful the last two weeks.

Titans at 49ers (-5): The San Francisco defense should be able to contain Chris Johnson a good bit better than Jacksonville did, forcing Vince Young to actually make a tough play with his arm this week.  As a result, San Fran should probably win this game behind the legs of Frank Gore.

Cowboys at Eagles (-3): The last time that Dallas was in Philly, they got embarrassed as the Eagles claimed the final NFC playoff spot in Week 17 of last season.  I don’t think we’ll see a repeat of that, but I think we’ll see the same Eagles team that we saw last week against the Giants as they have just started to click on all cylinders.  Not to say that Dallas isn’t playing well right now, but once again we have Tony Romo in a big game, which could be enough to give the game to the Birds.

Steelers (-3) at Broncos: Denver finally looked the way I thought they would all year against Baltimore last week.  Now they get to play an even better opponent in Pittsburgh, who might need this game to keep pace with the Bengals depending on their result on Sunday.  The Broncos appear to be losing some of that head of steam they opened the season with, and that could mean the beginning of a painful end to the 2009 campaign in Denver.

That’ll do it for this week.  Make sure to check back on Tuesday for my mid-season recap and self-assessment on how right or wrong I’ve been so far. 

 

I don't know who could use a good week more in Week 8, me or these guys?

Maybe it’s the fact that I am stuck in a deathbed for football this year in Washington, or maybe I just am missing something, but the last two weeks have not gone according to plan.  After what looked like a promising start with four easy wins, the Texans forgot how to play offense and failed to cover against San Fran after nearly blowing a 21-0 halftime lead and Brett Favre decided to throw one of his patented late-game picks for a Pittsburgh TD.  The rest of they day went the same, pretty much, with my only win coming thanks to the Saints’ 2nd half rally past Miami.  The Eagles’ easy win over the ‘Skins salvaged a 6-6-1 week and moved the season record to 53-47-1 (.530).  Here’s the picks for Week 8:

Dolphins (+4) at Jets: The Jets lost to the Dolphins three weeks ago when they were completely healthy and still had Kris Jenkins in the middle to plug up holes in the run defense.  Now he, along with RB Leon Washington and potentially WR Braylon Edwards will not be available against a Miami rushing attack that had a field day against the Jets on Monday night.  The Jets will need to limit Ronnie Brown to under 100 yards and get a good game out of a struggling Mark Sanchez to win this one. I don’t see either of those things happening.

Giants at Eagles (-1): In the first game of what will be a wild Sunday in Philadelphia, I expect the Eagles to play a very strong and sound game and beat the New York Giants in a close one at the Link.  The G-Men haven’t gotten the production they need out of Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw the last couple of games, and the Eagles’ defense might be the best out of the last three teams they’ve faced.  Also, the Eagles seem to have found the right offensive formula and are being driven by their youthful skill players in DeSean Jackson, Jeremy Maclin, and LeSean McCoy.

Broncos (+3) at Ravens: Going into Baltimore and winning is still a very tough task, but the way things have been going for the Denver Broncos, it wouldn’t surprise me to see it happen at all.  If Elvis Dumervil can get the better of his matchup on the line, I expect it’ll be a long day for Joe Flacco.  If this happens, the Broncos’ D can load up the box for Ray Rice and could make this ugly.  I also expect to see Denver spread the ball out offensively to anyone and everyone in order to buy Kyle Orton more time in the pocket and open things up for both Knowshon Moreno and Correll Buckhalter.

Texans (-4) at Bills: This is a matchup of two teams that shouldn’t be where they currently are.  The Texans are better than their 4-3 record would lead you to believe and they are just starting to click into gear, which is huge considering how well they play in the second half.  The combination of Matt Schaub, Steve Slaton, and Andre Johnson should prove to be too much for a 3-4 Bills team that has really been the beneficiary of playing well against some weaker opponents so far this year.  Plus, I don’t see Ryan Fitzpatrick throwing for less than 150 yards and Buffalo beating Houston.

Browns at Bears (-14): Normally I would see Chicago with this big of a spread and run away from them.  This time, though, Da Bears are in desperate need of a win and Jay Cutler & Co. have one of the more porous defenses in the league to go up against.  I think the most interesting thing that will happen during the course of this game will be whether or not Cleveland switches between Derek Anderson and Brady Quinn yet again.

Seahawks at Cowboys (-10): It took them six games to do it, but the Cowboys showed me something last week to make me think that they could be a serious factor in the NFC this year.  The emergence of the Tony Romo-Miles Austin connection, having Marion Barber and Felix Jones healthy, and the improvement of the pass rush has turned things around in Big D.  More than this, though, might be that the last time I saw Seattle, they got shellacked by Jacksonville, 41-0.  The Seahawks have some serious issues right now and are going to need some serious help to win this one.

Rams at Lions (pick ’em): Two reasons for picking the Detroit Lions this week:
1. They’re at home
2. At least when they’ve lost this year they’ve managed to be somewhat competitive.
This game merits no further conversation because of these teams’ combined 1-12 record.

49ers at Colts (-13): Indianapolis has just rolled through all of its opponents so far this year, and San Fran’s fairly suspect pass defense was exposed by the Texans last week. Peyton Manning to Reggie Wayne is certainly not going to be easy for the Niners to contain, not to mention the rest of the cast from a Colts offense that once again is amongst the best in the NFL.

Jaguars (+3) at Titans: I want to meet the individual who made this line and ask him if he’s watched the Titans this season.  I also want to ask him if he made this line before or after he heard Vince Young might get the start, or if he just thought that Jeff Fisher wearing the Peyton Manning jersey was inspiration for his team.  So long as Tennessee plays the way they have thus far, they will not win on Sunday.

Raiders (+17) at Chargers: The Raiders and Chargers met at the beginning of the year on Monday Night and Oakland actually managed to play what might have been its best game so far this year, falling on a late TD drive engineered by Philip Rivers.  The Raiders still stink, but they seem to know something about San Diego that keeps them in the game.  Chargers will win, but it’ll be closer than you think.

Panthers at Cardinals (-11): The Cardinals seem to have finally shook off whatever was affecting them at the beginning of the year, as was obvious with their big win on Sunday Night over the Giants.  Kurt Warner is finding Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin again, and the defense is making stops when it needs to.  This is very bad news for the Carolina Panthers, who desperately need to re-commit themselves to their running game as long as Jake Delhomme is under center.

Vikings (+3) at Packers: If Favre vs. Green Bay goes anything like Round 1 did, then the Vikings will definitely win this game.  Jared Allen and the Vikes’ D is going to be gunning for Aaron Rodgers early and often in this one and I expect Adrian Peterson to have a bounce back week after being pretty quiet in Pittsburgh.  The Vikings might be the class of the NFC this year and will continue to make their case on Sunday night.

Falcons at Saints (-10): I said it last week and I’ll say it again this week, until some team gives me a reason to not pick New Orleans, I am taking the Saints every week for the rest of the season.  Drew Brees should be able to cut down on his mistakes and take advantage of playing against an Atlanta defense that seems to have some growing issues in the secondary.  Matt Ryan and the Falcons offense just doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Saints in a high-scoring game.

Matty Ice has led the Falcons to a 4-1 start, but no one seems to be noticing. Maybe this week will help.

"Matty Ice" has led the Falcons to a 4-1 start, but no one seems to be noticing. Maybe this week will help.

I’m not going to preface this with anything other than oops.  Last week was just atrocious and hopefully no one that reads this bet using my picks after going 5-9.  If you did, and if I wasn’t a poor college student, I would pay you your losses, but alas I can’t.  Last week dropped the overall record to 47-41 (.534) for the season.  This is a big week for yours truly, so let’s take a look at the Week 7 picks.

49ers at Texans (-3): San Fran gets Frank Gore back, which is definitely good news for a team that was crippled offensively without him.  However, we shouldn’t forget what the Falcons passing offense did to these guys two weeks ago and the Texans are even better at throwing the ball around.  Houston seems like they’re on the verge of turning the corner after their typical slow start, and grabbing their first home win of the year this week would go a long way in helping them get into a muddled playoff picture.

Packers (-7) at Browns: One of the easiest picks of the week, considering the state of about half of the Cleveland players, who will be unavailable with the flu.  That, and Cleveland stunk with all of their regular players as it was.  The Pack in a yawner.

Chargers (-6) at Chiefs: After the loss to Denver at home on Monday Night, San Diego is at a crossroads in its season.  A loss to Kansas City might be a deadly blow to a team that has underachieved so far this year, especially defensively where Shawne Merriman has only 13 tackles in 5 games.  A win gets them back to 3-3 and keeps them in the playoff conversation in a congested AFC.

Colts (-14) at Rams: Unless Peyton Manning suffers a catastrophic injury during the course of this game, there is absolutely no way that the Colts are not going to blow the Rams away.  The Colts have beaten several good teams by convincing margins.  I wonder if Peyton will try and outscore Tom Brady and the Patriots from last week?

Vikings (+5) at Steelers: I think that everyone is kind of overstating how the Vikings’ D looked at the end of their game last week.  It was a complete blowout, and the D just packed it in early, nothing else.  Also, Pittsburgh almost never covers the spread and likes playing in ugly, close games.  This game will come down to a late field goal, and that will be the final margin.

Patriots (-16) vs. Buccaneers (in London, England): I don’t see how a game this lopsided is going to make the Brits like our version of football.  They send teams like Manchester United and Chelsea to the U.S. every summer.  We’re sending them the Tampa Bay Bucs.  The only thing that will even be entertaining about this game is to see how much New England can win by this week.

Jets at Raiders (+7): The Jets are beginning to play like the Jets again, which means that they’re due to throw up another stinker this week in Oakland.  Not to mention, the Jets’ run defense just took a big hit with the loss of Kris Jenkins, and Mark Sanchez will have to beat a tough Raiders secondary, which might be the only part of Oakland’s team that’s competent this year.  I wouldn’t be shocked to see Oakland pull the upset.

Bills at Panthers (-7): This game is definitely more of a pillow fight than a football game, but I think the Panthers are going to come out with a fire under their feet and play a very good game to get back to .500 for the year, if only by the grace of God, himself.  I expect to see two very good things from the Carolina offense. First, they’re starting to run the ball again, which is absolutely necessary for them to do considering the QB play of Jake Delhomme.  Second, the disgruntled Steve Smith will be a factor as a result of the success on the ground.  That’s bad news for the Bills.

Bears (+1) at Bengals:  The Bears are far more battle-tested than Cincy is and Jay Cutler is playing pretty well right now.  The Bengals defense is a complete mess with injuries and they looked very vulnerable last week at home against Houston.  In a game that’s basically a pick ’em, I think the Bears will take it 27-24.

Falcons (+4) at Cowboys: I don’t know if anyone’s been paying attention to this team, but Atlanta is pretty good this year.  Matt Ryan is showing that last year wasn’t a fluke and the Falcons could, very quietly, join the conversation for NFC’s best team if they go into Dallas and knock off the Cowboys, who it’s impossible to tell what you’ll get from them.

Saints (-7) at Dolphins: Until a team actually gives me a reason to not have 100% confidence in taking the Saints, I am picking them for the rest of the season.  The Dolphins and the wildcat can’t keep up with Drew Brees & Co. on offense.

Cardinals at Giants (-7): The G-Men are coming into this one after being humbled a week ago in New Orleans, and they are not happy about that loss.  The Cardinals have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the NFL so far this year, and after a couple of good games in a row, head into New York, where they were beaten 56-35 by the Jets last year in a sequence of 3 blowout losses in the Northeast.  I struggle to see ‘Zona play well in New York this time around, either.

Eagles (-7) at Redskins: Washington is a complete mess right now and couldn’t score on bad defenses before the most recent events surrounding Jim Zorn.  The Eagles are embarrassed after losing in Oakland and I fully expect them to show up in a big way for this one.  Philly should (note: SHOULD) win by a solid margin.

The Saints will be tested again by a team from New York on Sunday.  Can they handle the Giants the same way they did the Jets?

The Saints will be tested again by a team from New York on Sunday. Can they handle the Giants the same way they did the Jets?

The last couple of weeks have been somewhat unpredictable in the NFL and has left me with some spectacularly mediocre numbers.  An 8-6 record in Week 5 pushes the season record to 44-32 (.579).  Let’s take a look at the Week Six matchups (Picks in Bold, Home Team listed second):

Texans at Bengals (-5): This is a game between two teams that have gotten off to very different campaigns in 2009.  The Bengals might be one of the biggest surprises in the AFC this year, leading the North Division with a 4-1, which really should be a 5-0, overall record.  The Texans continue to be a first half disappointment, coming off of last week’s loss in Arizona, where they failed to punch it in from a yard out late in the fourth quarter.

Lions (+14) at Packers: Since when are the Packers one of the better teams in the league this year? The Steelers couldn’t cover an 11-point spread last week against Detroit and I think that Pittsburgh is better than Green Bay.  I also don’t think the Lions are THAT bad anymore.  This is a divisional game. Much like against the Vikings, the Lions will compete.   Alas, they will probably lose.

Ravens at Vikings (-3): I think it’s time we all realized that Baltimore’s defense is not the class of the NFL anymore.  This, combined with the struggles of the Ravens’ offense and the way the Vikes have played in their first five games, means this one might not be as close as some people think.

Giants (+3) at Saints: The Saints’ offense was somewhat exposed by the Jets’ defense two weeks ago.  I think the G-Men will have similar success containing New Orleans and that Eli Manning won’t make the same mistakes as Mark Sanchez, allowing New York to win this battle of the unbeatens by a touchdown margin. I think it’ll be 24-17 Giants.

Browns at Steelers (-15): I’m starting to buy back into Pittsburgh after they looked shaky when Troy Polamalu went down with his injury.  The offense seems to finally be clicking and they have a great young RB in Rashard Mendenhall, who holds onto the ball much better than Willie Parker, making it far less likely that the Browns’ very pedestrian offense will get the ball in scoring position more than a couple of times.

Panthers (-3) at Buccaneers: Carolina shouldn’t have much trouble with Tampa Bay, if only because no one else has really had an issue playing against Tampa Bay.  Neither of these teams are good at all, and it might come down to which starting QB, either Jake Delhomme or Josh Johnson, makes less mistakes to determine the winner.  There might also be more defensive TDs than offensive in this game.

Chiefs (+7) at Redskins:  Giving the Washington Redskins 7 points is an absolute crime considering they just lost to Carolina and Detroit earlier this year and look like they can’t put 7 points on the board most of the time.  I actually don’t think it’s unrealistic to say Kansas City will pick up their first win this season over the ‘Skins, plummeting Daniel Snyder’s group of over-payed and under-talented football players into further disarray.

Rams at Jaguars (-10): Jacksonville seems to be like two teams in one.  Either they will play you very tough and look very competitive, or they will throw up a complete goose egg like they did last week against the Seahawks.  The Jags will come out looking to put that game behind them, and shouldn’t have much trouble doing that against the lowly Rams, who might be the worst of the winless teams in the league.

Cardinals at Seahawks (-3): It’s amazing how much different Seattle looks when Matt Hasselbeck is under center.  Their performance against the Jaguars last week was nothing short of dominant, and they now look to make another big statement by beating one of the favorites in the NFC West in ‘Zona.  The Cards survived at home against Houston last week, but still look like they might be experiencing some of that Superbowl hangover from last year.  This might be a rude awakening for Kurt Warner and Co.

Eagles (-15) at Raiders: After last week’s 44-7 loss to the Giants, New York LB Antonio Pierce noted that playing the Raiders felt like “a scrimmage.”  The Eagles should win this game by at least 3-4 TDs if the Raiders are as bad as Mr. Pierce is suggesting.  Plus, Philly needs to keep winning as long as the G-Men are unbeaten.

Titans at Patriots (-10): Have you seen the Tennessee Titans lately? They are a complete and utter disaster.  Going up against a New England team that doesn’t lose back-to-back games ever, I highly doubt that Tennessee will prove to be much of a road block.  Expect to see Vince Young make an early appearance in this game. Should be a blowout.

Bills at Jets (-10): The Jets have gone from 3-0 and Superbowl contenders to 3-2 and really needing to win this one at home against a Bills team that just cannot do anything offensively, being held to just 3 points by the Cleveland Browns last week.  I expect the Jets to get back on track this week by taking care of business before heading out to play Oakland.  As for Buffalo, maybe they’ll actually get Terrell Owens involved in the offense, but he’ll be up against Darrelle Revis, so it won’t be easy.

Bears at Falcons (-3): I really have no idea who to pick in this game. Two pretty good teams in a game that they could both use to keep up with the undefeated team that’s ahead of them in their respective divisions, and both coming off of solid victories.  When all else fails, take the home team and hope for the best, plus Matt Ryan is my fantasy QB so I would like it if the Falcons won a high-scoring game.

Broncos (+3) at Chargers: After five weeks of mocking them, I can deny it no more. The Broncos have a good football team, as unjust as it may be, they are good, and probably the best team in the AFC West, especially with the Chargers struggling so far this season.  Here’s the chance for the Broncos to separate themselves from the rest of the division.  Now that I’ve stopped saying they aren’t that good, they’ll probably get killed, but that’s football, right?

Ive picked the Lions 11 times in the past two seasons. Im 0-11 picking them. So naturally, I picked them again this week.

I've picked the Lions 11 times in the past two seasons. I'm 0-11 picking them. So naturally, I picked them again this week.

After last week’s 11-5 triumph for yours truly, I realize that I am bound to follow it up with something slightly less spectacular.  It’s the law of averages, really.  After two decent to above average weeks in a row, I have to come back to Earth…or do I? Maybe I’ve finally found the right formula in picking games. OK, probably not, but I’ve been lucky so far and avoided disaster, so let’s see if I can keep it going in Week 3. (Picks in Bold, Home Team listed 2nd):

Redskins at Lions (+6): A week after finally realizing the error of my ways by picking Detroit, I am going right back to the one team that fails me the most.  Honestly, I have been so uninspired by the ‘Skins in their first two games that it wouldn’t shock me to see the Lions find their way to a stunning victory, which would be their first since December 2007.  Look for Calvin Johnson to come up big against this Washington secondary.

Packers (-7) at Rams: Green Bay is going to come out firing on all cylinders after last week’s embarrassment against the Bengals in Lambeau.  This is bad news for a Rams team that has managed to score a grand total of 7 points in its first 2 games of the 2009 campaign.

49ers (+7) at Vikings: I like the Vikings to win this game, although it wouldn’t shock me to see either team win it, which is why I struggle to see this one be a victory of 7 points or more.  This is a game that will be won on the ground and in the trenches by Frank Gore or Adrian Peterson.  That adds up to a low-scoring affair in Minneapolis on Sunday.

Falcons at Patriots (-5): Bad news for Matt Ryan & Co. The Patriots haven’t lost back-to-back games in almost 3 full seasons.  Worse for Atlanta, New England is still mad about losing to the Jets last week and they are looking to take it out on someone.  I think the Pats will dominate a pretty good Falcons team at Gillette Stadium.

Titans (+3) at Jets: Good news for Kerry Collins & Co. The Jets haven’t stopped talking about last week’s win over the Patriots, clearly a sign of a team that is not prepared to take the field against a desperate 0-2 Tennessee side.  The Titans, behind Chris Johnson, are going to take it to the overconfident and unaware New York defense all game in this one.

Chiefs at Eagles (-9): Donovan McNabb might not be playing in this one, but if the Chiefs show up and play the way they did last week at home against the Raiders, then Kevin Kolb might look like Joe Montana out there on Sunday.  The Eagles’ D will also be thankful to be facing a much more pedestrian offense after getting torched by the Saints last week.

Giants (-7) at Buccaneers: The Giants are looking really good after going in and grabbing the W in Dallas last weekend.  The Bucs have looked awful in their first two games of the season, losing to Dallas and Buffalo.  I expect the G-Men to go into Raymond James Stadium and win this one much easier than last week’s game.

Browns at Ravens (-14): Under normal circumstances, I would always take the points here.  However, after seeing Baltimore’s offense put up big numbers against a solid San Diego defense and seeing the Browns get smacked 27-6 by a Broncos team that I really don’t think is that good, it’s hard to see the Ravens not annihilate them in Baltimore.

Jaguars at Texans (-4): Last week we saw both of these teams play the way I expected them to in Week 1.  The Texans’ offense was nothing short of explosive against the Titans in Nashville while the Jaguars looked like a team that would struggle to fill its stadium because everyone knows they’re not good enough to compete this year.  The Texans will build on last week’s momentum and crush Jacksonville to make up for losing their home opener.

Bears (-3) at Seahawks: At first I almost picked Seattle. Then I had flashbacks to last season when Seneca Wallace had to step in for the oft-injured Matt Hasselbeck…it wasn’t a pretty sight.  The Bears will get the job done, and the misery will begin for the Seahawks and their fans.

Saints (-7) at Bills: It’s very hard not to expect New Orleans to explode for 40+ points, especially against a defense that isn’t even close to as good as the unit they faced last week.  Drew Brees has made this entire offense better than anyone ever thought it could be, and he will continue his great start in Ralph Wilson Stadium against a Bills team that should be 2-0 going into this game.

Steelers (-4) at Bengals: Pittsburgh owns Cincinnati  on the road much like the Patriots owned the Jets on the road.  However, this does not mean that the Bungles will get the same result as the Jets this year.  I think that Chad Ochocinco will have a big game against a depleted Steelers’ secondary, but at the end of the day, Big Ben will push his team to a 7 point victory, 24-17 is my guess.

Broncos (+2) at Raiders:  I have absolutely no clue how or why the Raiders are a favorite in any game.  I understand that they won last week in their pillow fight with the Chiefs, but have you seen their offense?  If the Broncos can score 17 points, they’ll win this game and I will continue to give them no respect for their quick start purely based upon beating the Bungles, Browns, and Raiders.  I wish that my Jets had this schedule to open the season.

Dolphins (+6) at Chargers: The Dolphins’ offense is basically designed to keep games close by milking the clock as much as humanly possible, kind of like what they did against the Colts on Monday Night.  If they can accomplish that feat again, they’ll lose in a very similar way, which means they won’t get blown out.

Colts at Cardinals (-3):  In what will most likely be one of the highest-scoring games in Sunday Night Football history, I like Arizona to manage to outlast a depleted Indy team in a game that fits exactly into Kurt Warner’s style: Arena Football (Note: I was trying for about 20 minutes to think of a way to make a joke about bagging groceries, but I failed. If you can think of a way to fit it into this, send it to me and I will give you all the credit.  If it doesn’t make sense, I will post the comment and mock you publicly for the dozens of readers on this blog to see.)

Monday Night
Panthers (+9)
at Cowboys: Dallas should be able to control this game fairly easily, but their secondary should be having nightmares about Steve Smith right now. Smith has been limited in his first two games, but it’s only a matter of time before he breaks out of his shell.  Against Dallas’ mediocre secondary, expect Smith to go for a couple of big plays, to at least keep it close.